UPA will emerge as the biggest coalition after 2009 Loksabha elections but will fall short by 40-60 seats to get absolute majority. According to IBN opinion Poll, CPM, BSP, AIADMK, TDP, SP and TMC will decide the next PM after polls. Political alliances in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will play crucial role in deciding the winner. If Congress can successfully form alliances with AIADMK and Trinamool Congress in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, UPA will once again emerge as winner after 2009 general elections.
IBN Opinion Poll results:
1. UPA: 215-235 seats.
2. NDA:165-185 seats
3. Left front: 35-45 seats
4. Others: 90-110 seats.
Important points:
1. UPA lost 7% vote share while NDA gained just 1% share.
2. Congress will win in 170 seats while BJP will win in 135 seats.
3. Left will lose some seats due to setbacks in Kerala.
4. UPA will get some shocks in Andhra Pradesh due to TDP-TRS alliance.
5. Congress is enjoying huge popularity among SCs and STs.
Survey was held in January and margin of error is high due to delimitation process.
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